TORONTO — There was a time, not long ago, when the Detroit Tigers envisioned a very different approach at the 2022 trade close — 6 p.m. Tuesday, less than two hours before they play the Twins in Minnesota.
General Manager Al Avila expected to add talent by the deadline.
So does manager AJ Hinch.
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“Unless you’re a team that’s acquiring, it’s not nearly as fun,” Hinch said of last season’s trade close. “We always have to remember that we want to add. … Next time we speak in a year, I hope we add talent.”
Instead, the Tigers — 41-62 overall and more than a dozen games in the American League Central — are not on the verge of a postseason push. Indeed, one can wonder if rebuilding will require another rebuild, although Tigers leadership seem to believe the disaster of 2022 can be resolved without a full overhaul.
“We have to be open to what we can do to make the team better for the rest of the season but more importantly next year as well,” Avila said on July 23. “We’ll see what we can do to make our team better.”
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Once again, the organization is attempting to trade players with expiring contracts. If there’s a chance to improve the roster for 2023 and beyond, the Tigers want to capitalize on it by trading against established team-controlled MLB players, but that opportunity may not come until the offseason. Rookie center fielder Riley Greene is the only untouchable.
“I don’t like that we’re in this position,” Hinch said.
It shouldn’t be like that.
What went wrong
Avila was heavily criticized for his role in building up these underperforming Tigers, but after spring training, he and Tigers fans were optimistic about the roster being assembled during the off-season. It wasn’t a guarantee of surviving the franchise’s six-year postseason drought, but nobody expected these players to do so poorly for so long.
Finally, do you remember what the roster was supposed to look like at that point?
Rotation: LHP Eduardo Rodriguez, RHP Casey Mize, LHP Tarik Skubal, RHP Matt Manning and RHP Michael Pineda.
Bullpen: LHP Gregory Soto (closer), LHP Tyler Alexander, LHP Andrew Chafin, RHP Jose Cisnero, RHP Michael Fulmer, RHP Kyle Funkhouser, RHP Joe Jiménez and RHP Alex Lange.
Starting grid: C Tucker Barnhart, 1B Spencer Torkelson, 2B Jonathan Schoop, 3B Jeimer Candelario, SS Javier Báez, LF Robbie Grossman, CF Riley Greene, RF Austin Meadows and Miguel Cabrera (DH).
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Banker: OF Akil Baddoo, UTIL Harold Castro, UTIL Willi Castro and C/OF Eric Haase.
On paper, the Tigers were lined up for the competition. But on the field, the Tigers have the third-worst record in the AL due to countless injuries and poor performance, and the offense — averaging 3.21 runs per game — is one of the worst in baseball history.
But it’s easy to see how things could be different.
“I’m just trying to make sure our boys realize we’re putting ourselves in this situation,” Hinch said. “We’re having to deal with the aftermath of the stress, the anxiety, the curiosity and the reality that if I were out and had a competing club, I also have a few pieces that I want here.”
There are many “what if” scenarios to think about.
What if Greene never broke his foot in spring training, a day before he was supposed to be included in the opening day lineup? (Admittedly, that means the Tigers wouldn’t trade Isaac Paredes for Meadows to the Tampa Bay Rays.) Greene’s injury may be the biggest reason for the Tigers’ troubles. The 21-year-old was the best offensive player in the camp and since Greene’s debut on June 18, the Tigers have had a more than terrible 17-22 record.
What if Mize, a victim of Tommy John surgery and former No. 1 overall, stayed healthy? What if Manning had stayed healthy past two starts? (Positioner Harold Castro has as many pitching appearances — four — as Mize and Manning combined.) What if injury and wartime troubles hadn’t gotten in the way of Rodriguez’s status? He has not served for the Tigers since May 18, remains on the suspended list unpaid and will not return until mid or late August.
What if Báez had avoided the worst start to the season of his career, in which he was baseball’s worst offensive player through mid-June? He already has 10 homers and .645 OPS in 89 games. What if Torkelson, who struggled to hit fastball down the middle, was comfortable in the big leagues? The Tigers demoted the former No. 1 overall to Triple-A Toledo on July 17. What if Grossman, Candelario and Schoop hadn’t experienced extreme declines from last year’s production? What if Meadows, who has played 36 games and not since June 15, has never struggled with a sinus infection, an ear infection, dizziness, strains in his right and left Achilles tendons and general aches and pains? He didn’t shoot in a Tigers uniform.
It’s Murphy’s law.
Everything that could go wrong went wrong.
Many fans were excited coming out of spring training. The team has pledged $235.5 million to four free agents. Hinch traveled with Avila during the unlocked portion of the off-season. He met potential players — including Báez (six years, $140 million) and Rodriguez (five years, $77 million) — to outline the Tigers’ future plan. National networks spoke of tigers as a threat heading into 2022.
Many of these fans are dissatisfied with Avila. Fans chanted at games in support of the longtime general manager’s sacking. Avila takes the blame and while he deserves some of it, Hinch also played a role in building this year’s squad and is the product’s captain on the field.
A product on the pitch that was unacceptable.
Players, particularly veterans Grossman, Schoop and Candelario, should be held accountable for whether or not they do it on the field. As for the injuries, the Tigers have no explanation and believe those setbacks were beyond their control.
“I’m not trying to avoid the question, I just don’t have the answers,” Hinch said. “These are age-old questions. The more you protect pitchers, the more we hurt them. But if we let them run out there and they run into the ground, then we’ve abused them.
“Getting a pitcher from start to finish is a difficult process. It’s gotten harder with shortened springs, shortened years, inning totals and many uncontrollable variables. Honestly, it feels like we’re all guessing what the right solutions are, and the majority of the league is guessing wrong.”
What to look out for
The trade deadline could still open the door for the Tigers to improve immediately – by attracting talented players – and work toward their long-term goal of sustained success. What happens to Skubal, either at this year’s deadline or during the offseason, could point to the organization’s evolution.
A free agent after 2026, Skubal is a rare breed with Cy Young potential. He had surgery by Tommy John at Seattle University in 2016, so his power arm should be in solid shape for years to come. The 25-year-old is the type of player a team builds around, rather than trading for prospective or MLB-ranked players.
“I love being a tiger, but it’s out of my control,” Skubal said. “I can’t control it all. My job is to take care of pitching every fifth day, and whatever happens, happens.”
Although Skubal and almost everyone else is available, finding trade partners for players with expiring contracts is the Tigers’ top priority: Chafin (player option after 2022, would consider COVID-19 vaccination if traded), Pineda (injured), Grossman (batting .205 in 83 games), Fulmer (2.77 ERA in 40 games), Barnhart (batting .201 in 64 games), and Peralta (rehab use).
Two players who will become free agents after 2023 are also being bought: Candelario (batting .211 in 81 games) and Jiménez (3.00 ERA in 42 games). Soto, a post-2025 free agent, has been involved in trade talks but the Tigers don’t appear motivated to move him unless a postseason competitor presents a strong package.
Teams with enough chips to take Soto include the Los Angeles Dodgers, Houston Astros, Toronto Blue Jays and Philadelphia Phillies.
“Nowadays there isn’t a guy who isn’t being discussed at some level,” Hinch said.
Over the past few days, a number of players have infiltrated Hinch’s office to inquire about their chances of being traded ahead of Tuesday’s deadline. The skipper is honest with them about their situation, whether they’re on an expiring contract or haven’t been good enough to be wanted by competitors, but he’s not the person to work the phone and close the deals.
Finally, Hinch reminds players of their reality.
The Tigers aren’t buyers because they lost 60 of their first 100 games.
Contact Evan Petzold at epetzold@freepress.com or follow him on Twitter @ Evan Petzold. Read more about the Detroit Tigers and sign up for our Tigers newsletter.